PUBLICATION GLOBE AND MAIL
DATE: TUE DEC.10,2002
PAGE: A5
BYLINE: SHAWN MCCARTHY
CLASS: National News
EDITION: Metro DATELINE:
WORDS: 576
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Gun-death figures called outrageous -- But Rock says registry is a great life-save
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SHAWN McCARTHY
OTTAWA BUREAU CHIEF A prominent criminologist has slammed a claim from Industry Minister Allan Rock that the controversial gun registry will save 1,240 lives in a decade.
Mr. Rock -- who introduced the registry when he was justice minister seven years ago -- spent much of last week defending the program and its billion-dollar cost overrun revealed last week by Auditor-General Sheila Fraser. At one point, he said the registry had saved 300 lives a year. In Vancouver last Friday, he repeated the claim that the registry has had a direct impact on the number of gun-related deaths in Canada.
"You have to ask yourself, what are 1,240 lives worth?" he said when asked about cost overruns at the federal gun registry. He has consistently argued that, while the program needs to be fixed, the registry must be maintained, a position shared by Justice Minister Martin Cauchon.
But criminologists argue the Mr. Rock's defence of the registry is way off base.
"In the case of 300 lives saved a year, that's a totally outrageous claim," said University of Toronto criminologist Philip Stenning. "It's completely unjustified, insupportable."
Mr. Stenning questioned whether the gun registry has saved any lives or resulted in any drop in gun-related crime.
"There's no evidence at all that gun control has had any impact." Ottawa-based criminologist Matthew Yeager agreed there is no evidence to support Mr. Rock's contention.
In the House of Commons yesterday, Progressive Conservative Leader Joe Clark asked Canadian Alliance MP John Williams, who is also chairman of the Public Accounts committee, to have his committee investigate the cost overruns to the gun registry. Mr. Clark wants Mr. Rock to appear, as well as Health Minister Anne McLellan, who was justice minister from 1997 to 2000, and former finance minister Paul Martin.
Mr. Williams said he will consult today with the Liberal-dominated committee.
Last week, Mr. Rock insisted the furor over the cost overruns should not cloud the fact that the Liberal gun-control program has saved lives.
He first mentioned 300 lives a year, which reflects the drop in firearm-related deaths since 1992, when the Progressive Conservatives brought in their version of gun control.
He later reduced that estimate to 124 a year -- times the 10 years it will take to get the registry fully implemented at a cost of $1-billion. That figure represents the decline in gun-related deaths from 1996 to 1999.
Kwing Hung, a statistician from the Department of Justice's Canadian Firearm Centre, said the federal gun-control measures are likely one of many factors contributing to the drop in the gun-related deaths.
Even proponents of gun control acknowledge that it is too early to pass judgment on the legislation, though they insist it is having an impact.
Wendy Cuckier of the Coalition for Gun Control said it is "premature" for such talk, noting that crime rates fluctuate.
Mr. Stenning says much of the decline in death rates resulted from a drop in suicides using firearms. "Does it matter that people who are committing suicide are not using guns?," he asked.
Gun-related homicides have declined since the early 1990s from 247 in 1992 to 171 last year, according to Statistics Canada. But most of that reductionoccurred between 1992 and 1997, before the gun registry was up and running.