FIREARMS FACTS UPDATE

 

HOW MANY GUN OWNERS

HAVE COMPLIED WITH THE GUN REGISTRY?

By Garry Breitkreuz, MP – September 10, 2003

 

As each deadline for the licencing of all firearm owners (January 1, 2001) and the registration of all guns (January 1, 2003) passed, the government claimed and the media reported compliance rates.  Here are our calculations of Firearms Act compliance rates based on the best-documented evidence available from the government and academic sources.  Calculations are based on Dept. of Justice licencing and registration statistics as of July 5, 2003.

 

In order to calculate firearm licencing and gun registration compliance rates accurately we needed both the number of gun owners and the number of guns in Canada before the licencing and registration process started on December 1, 1998.  We also needed to know the most current number of firearms licences issued and number of guns registered.

 

COMPLIANCE RATES – LICENCING OF FIREARM OWNERS

 

Number of Firearms Licences Issued as of April 12, 2003    = 1,930,844

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsLicencesbyProv-2003-04-12.xls

 

Number of Firearms Licences Issued from CFC website       = 1,945,000

http://www.cfc-ccaf.gc.ca/en/general_public/program_statistics/default.asp

Number of Gun Owners in Canada – Jan 2003 CSSA Estimates                  = 5,000,000

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/Non-compliance%20with%20the%20Firearms%20Act.pdf

Number of Gun Owners in Canada – May 1998 Gov’t Estimates                = 3,300,000

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/GunsinCanada.htm

Number of Gun Owners in Canada – Fall 2000 Gov’t Estimates                 = 2,300,000

http://www.cfc-ccaf.gc.ca/en/general_public/news_releases/survey-01252001.asp

Number of Gun Owners in Canada – Jan 2001 Mauser’s Estimates            = 2,700,000

http://www.sfu.ca/~mauser/papers/cbc/Commentary6-12-02.pdf

 

LICENCING COMPLIANCE RATE USING 2003 CSSA ESTIMATES                    = 39%

LICENCING COMPLIANCE RATE USING 1998 GOV’T ESTIMATES                 = 59%

LICENCING COMPLIANCE RATE USING 2000 GOV’T ESTIMATES                  = 85%

LICENCING COMPLIANCE RATE USING 2001 MAUSER ESTIMATES             = 72%

 

NOTE #1: The deadline for all firearms owners to have a licence was Jan 1, 2001.

NOTE #2: Firearms can only be registered by the holder of a valid Possession and Acquisition Licence.

 

COMPLIANCE RATES – REGISTRATION OF FIREARMS

 

Number of Firearms Registered as of July 5, 2003                   =   6,482,845

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsRegistered-2003-07-05.xls

 

Number of Guns in Canada – Mar 1976 Gov’t Estimates                  = 16,500,000

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/breitkreuzgpress/GunControl50.htm

Number of Guns in Canada – Jan 2003 CSSA Estimates                    = 11,000,000

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/Non-compliance%20with%20the%20Firearms%20Act.pdf

Number of Guns in Canada – Aug 2002 Gov’t Estimates                     =   7,900,000

http://www.cfc-ccaf.gc.ca/en/general_public/program_statistics/default.asp

 

REGISTRATION COMPLIANCE RATE USING 1976 GOV’T ESTIMATES            = 39%

REGISTRATION COMPLIANCE RATE USING 2003 CSSA ESTIMATES               = 59%

REGISTRATION COMPLIANCE RATE USING 2002 GOV’T ESTIMATES            = 82%

 

NOTE: The deadline for all guns to be registered was Jan 1, 2003.

 

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GOVERNMENT ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF GUN OWNERS WHO STILL HAVEN’T REGISTERED OR RE-REGISTERED

THEIR GUNS AS OF July 5, 2003

 

 

NUMBER OF LICENCED INDIVIDUALS STILL TO REGISTER = 428,639

Documented as of: July 5, 2003

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsRegistered-2003-07-05.xls

 

NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS STILL TO RE-REGISTER THEIR GUNS = 324,768

Documented as of: July 5, 2003

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsRegistered-2003-07-05.xls

 

NUMBER OF GUNS STILL TO BE REGISTERED = 1.5 MILLION (Approximately)

Documented as of: July 5, 2003

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsRegistered-2003-07-05.xls

 

NUMBER OF HANDGUNS STILL TO BE RE-REGISTERED = 645,921

Documented as of: July 5, 2003

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsRegistered-2003-07-05.xls

 

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GOVERNMENT ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF GUN OWNERS WHO HAVE STILL NOT OBTAINED A FIREARMS LICENCE

AS OF AUGUST 2, 2003

 

 

NUMBER OF GUN OWNERS IN CANADA FROM CFC WEBSITE               = 2,300,000

http://www.cfc-ccaf.gc.ca/en/general_public/news_releases/survey-01252001.asp

NUMBER OF LICENCED GUN OWNERS FROM CFC WEBSITE            = 1,945,000

http://www.cfc-ccaf.gc.ca/en/general_public/program_statistics/default.asp

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ____________________________

 

NUMBER OF UNLICENCED GUN OWNERS IN CANADA                        =  355,000

 

 

NUMBER OF OWNERS OF REGISTERED HANDGUNS WITHOUT A LICENCE = 304,375

Documented as of: May 27, 2002

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/ohwhatamess.htm

NOTE: Handguns can only be re-registered by the holder of a valid Possession and Acquisition Licence.