GOVERNMENT’S NEWEST INCOMPLETE FORECASTS SHOW GUN REGISTRY WILL COST MORE THAN $1.3 BILLION BEFORE IT IS FULLY IMPLEMENTED (I.E. REACHES “STEADY STATE”)

By Garry Breitkreuz, MP – Updated: April 17, 2003

A. TOTAL SPENT AS OF MARCH 1, 2002 = $ 688,000,000 [Auditor General]

Note #1: “We believe that this information does not fairly

present the cost of the Program to the government.”

Auditor General’s Report December 2002 – Chap. 10, Page 1

Note #2: “The costs incurred by the provincial and territorial

agencies in enforcing the legislation were not reported”

Auditor General’s Report December 2002 – Chap. 10, Page 6

Note #3: Does not include the 111 blank entries in the Justice

Minister’s Plans and Priorities Report for 2003-2004

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/blanksingunregistryspending.htm

B. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2002-03 = $ 113,500,000 [Mar 21/02]

- Dept. of Justice estimate = $113,500,000 [Mar 21/02]

(Running Total = $801,500,000 (See Notes in A. above)

C. SUPPLEMENTARY ESTIMATES (A) 2002-03 = $ 72,000,000 [Oct 31/02]

- Liberals refuses to spend this $72 M. = $ (72,000,000) [Dec 05/02]

D. SUPPLEMENTARY ESTIMATES (B) 2002-03 = $ 59,500,000 [Feb 26/03]

Note: The Liberals maintain this $59.5 M is included

in the original $113.5 M budgeted for 2002-03.

E. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2003-04 = $ 128,100,000 [Feb 26/03]

- Dept. of Justice estimate = $95,000,000 [Apr 24/02]

- Hession/HLB Estimate = $115,400,000 [Feb 03/03]

- Dept. of Justice estimate = $113,100,000 [Mar 27/03]

- Justice estimate for ASD = $ 15,000,000 [Mar 27/03]

(Running Total = $929,600,000) (See Notes in A. above)

F. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2004-05 = $ 94,900,000 [Feb 03/03]

- Dept. of Justice estimate = $80,000,000 [Apr 24/02]

- Hession/HLB Estimate = $ 103,400,000 [Feb 03/03]

- Justice Dept. estimate = $ 94,900,000 [Mar 27/03]

(Running Total = $1,024,500,000) (See Notes in A. above

G. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2005-06 = $ 75,700,000 [Feb 03/03]

- Hession/HLB Estimate = $ 77,800,000 [Feb 03/03]

- Justice Dept. estimate = $ 75,700,000 [Mar 27/03]

(Running Total = $1,100,200,000) (See Notes in A. above

H. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2006-07 = $ 79,000,000 [Feb 03/03]

- Hession/HLB Estimate = $ 79,000,000 [Feb 03/03]

(Running Total = $1,179,200,000) (See Notes in A. above

I. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2007-08 = $ 75,300,000 [Feb 03/03]

- Hession/HLB Estimate = $ 75,300,000 [Feb 03/03]

(Running Total = $1,254,500,000) (See Notes in A. above

J. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2008-09 = $ 72,300,000 [Feb 03/03]

- Hession/HLB Estimate = $ 72,300,000 [Feb 03/03] “Steady State”

(Running Total = $1,326,800,000) (See Notes in A. above

K. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2009-10 = $ 72,300,000 [Feb 03/03]

- Hession/HLB Estimate = $ 72,300,000 [Feb 03/03]

__________________

GRAND TOTAL = $ 1,399,100,000

NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE ACTUAL TOTAL COST!

- Please see Auditor General’s quotes in Item A. above.

1. DID YOU HAPPEN TO NOTICE ALL THE BLANKS IN GOVERNMENT'S FUTURE SPENDING PLANS FOR FIREARMS PROGRAM RELEASED BY THE JUSTICE MINISTER ON MARCH 27, 2003?

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/blanksingunregistryspending.htm

2. TEN YEAR FORECASTS FROM THE HESSION/HLB REPORT = $541,400,000

Note: From document NOT tabled in the House of Commons – February 3, 2003

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/firearmscostprojections-2003-02-031.pdf

3. TOTAL SPENT AS OF MARCH 31, 2002 = $688,000,000 [Auditor General’s Report]

Office of the Auditor General – December 2002 Report

Note: Document tabled in the House of Commons – December 3, 2002

Chapter 10 - Department of Justice

Costs of Implementing the Canadian Firearms Program

http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/domino/reports.nsf/html/20021210ce.html

Main Points

10.1 The Department of Justice Canada did not provide Parliament with sufficient information to allow it to effectively scrutinize the Canadian Firearms Program and ensure accountability. It provided insufficient financial information and explanations for the dramatic increase in the cost of the Program.

10.2 In 1995 the Department told Parliament that the Canadian Firearms Program would cost $119 million to implement, which would be offset by $117 million in fees. We requested the Department provide us with information on Program costs and revenues for the period 1995-96 to 2001-02. The information the Department provided states that by 2001-02 it has spent about $688 million on the Program and collected about $59 million in revenues after refunds. We believe that this information does not fairly present the cost of the Program to the government.

10.3 In 2000, the Department of Justice estimated that by 2004-05 it would spend at least $1 billion on the Program and collect $140 million in fees after refunds. This amount does not include all financial impacts on the government. The Department also did not report to Parliament on the wider costs of the Program as required by the government's regulatory policy.

10.29 Further, in its Regulatory Impact Analysis Statements the Department of Justice did not provide Parliament with an estimate of all the major additional costs that would be incurred. This disclosure was required by the government's regulatory policy. The costs incurred by the provincial and territorial agencies in enforcing the legislation were not reported. In addition, costs that were incurred by firearms owners, firearms clubs, manufacturers, sellers, and importers and exporters of firearms, in their efforts to comply with the legislation were not reported.

4. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2002-03 = $113,500,000 [March 31, 2002]

On Wednesday, April 24, 2002, the government answered Garry Breitkreuz's Order Paper Question Q-131: Mr. Paul Harold Macklin (Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada, Lib.): (a) The Canadian Firearms Centre’s, CFC, proposed budget allocation for fiscal year 2002-03 is $113.5 million. [Hansard Page 10773]

TREASURY BOARD NEWS RELEASE & BACKGROUNDER - October 31, 2002

http://www.tbs-sct.gc.ca/media/nr-cp/2002/1031_e.html

“$72 million to the Department of Justice for the continued implementation of the Canadian Firearms Program.”

$72 MILLION withdrawn from Supplementary Estimates by Parliament – December 5, 2002

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/breitkreuzgpress/GunControl75.htm

5. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2003-04 = $ 128,100,000 [Feb 26/03]

- Dept. of Justice estimate = $95,000,000 [Apr 24/02]

- Hession/HLB Estimate = $115,400,000 [Feb 03/03]

- Dept. of Justice estimate = $113,100,000 [Mar 27/03]

- Justice estimate for ASD = $ 15,000,000 [Mar 27/03] “not included in planned spending)

Note: ASD = Alternative Service Delivery = Privatization

2003-2004 Estimates - A Report on Plans and Priorities

Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada

http://www.tbs-sct.gc.ca/est-pre/20032004/Jus-Jus/Jus-Jusr34_e.asp#FirearmsProgram

CAUCHON'S EXPLAINS GUN REGISTRY COST ESTIMATES TO MEDIA - NOT TO PARLIAMENT!

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/cauchon'sexplanationofestimates2003-04.pdf

6. TOTAL SPENT AS OF NOVEMBER 21, 2001 = $689,760,000 [Treasury Board]

On Wednesday, November 21, 2001, the Standing Senate Committee on National Finance met to examine the expenditures set out in the Supplementary Estimates (A) for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2002.

WITNESSES: From the Treasury Board of Canada:

Richard J. Neville, Deputy Comptroller General, Comptrollership Branch;
David Bickerton, Acting Executive Director, Expenditure Operations and Estimates Directorate, Comptrollership Branch

Testimony of Richard J. Neville, Deputy Comptroller General, Comptrollership Branch, Treasury Board of Canada: For previous years - if you care to jot this down - before the beginning of this fiscal year, it was $541,262,000. In the Main Estimates - that is, the Main Estimates for this year, 2001-02 - there was a planned additional $34,611,000. The amount in these Supplementary Estimates, as I have already explained, is $113,886,000. The total at this point is $689,760,000. I trust, Mr. Chairman, that answers the senator's request.

Senator Terry Stratton of Manitoba: The concern I have is that this is $689 million, which is virtually $600 million more than the minister promised it would be. How can someone be that incredibly wrong?

After Mr. Neville couldn't answer, Senator Stratton asked again: How can it be that wrong from the original? Where will this end? Do you have any forecast? I am sure you do not.

Click here for complete text:

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/senateguncosts.htm\

7. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2002-03 = $113,500,000 [Mar 21/02]

TREASURY BOARD NEWS RELEASE & BACKGROUNDER - October 31, 2002

http://www.tbs-sct.gc.ca/media/nr-cp/2002/1031_e.html

“$72 million to the Department of Justice for the continued implementation of the Canadian Firearms Program.”

8. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2003-04 = $ 95,000,000

On Wednesday, April 24, 2002, the government answered Garry Breitkreuz's Order Paper Question Q-131: Mr. Paul Harold Macklin (Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada, Lib.): ii. For 2003-04 the net costs are projected to be $59.8 million (this consists of projected gross expenditures of $95.0 million minus $35.2 million in revenue) [Hansard Page 10773]

NOTE: BEWARE OF DEPT. OF JUSTICE REVENUE FORECASTS

(a) On April 24, 1995, Justice Minister Allan Rock promised Parliament that the system would function at “almost break-even.” In a letter to the Toronto Star on July 19, 1999, Justice Minister Anne McLellan promised “user fees would cover the entire cost of the program.”

(b) This “revenue” is simply tax levied against law-abiding responsible gun owners. These “user fees” don’t reduce the cost of the gun registry, they just drive more and more people away from legitimate hunting and shooting sports and drive more and more licenced firearms dealers and outfitters out of business. Only in the warped mind of a Liberal could anyone consider killing tourism, businesses and employment as a net benefit.

(c) Justice Department documents estimate the regulatory cost of purchasing a hunting rifle is $279.00. RCMP documents show the number of Firearms Business Permits issued annually had dropped from 16,420 in 1979 to 4,820 in 1998. Canadian Wildlife Services documents show the number of Migratory Bird Permits issued annually dropped from 524,946 in 1978 to 191,444 last year.

9. ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR 2004-05 = $ 80,000,000

On Wednesday, April 24, 2002, the government answered Garry Breitkreuz's Order Paper Question Q-131: Mr. Paul Harold Macklin (Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada, Lib.): iii. For 2004-05 the net costs are projected to be $44.8 million (this consists of projected gross expenditures of $80.0 million minus $35.2 in revenue). [Hansard Page 10773]

10. EXPENDITURES FOR 2005-12 = “expected…to decrease”

On Wednesday, April 24, 2002, the government answered Garry Breitkreuz's Order Paper Question Q-131: Mr. Paul Harold Macklin (Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada, Lib.): Funding has not yet been finalized for fiscal years 2005-06 through 2011-12, but is expected to continue to decrease. [Hansard Page 10773]

37th PARLIAMENT, 1st SESSION

EDITED HANSARD • NUMBER 175

Wednesday, April 24, 2002

Questions on the Order Paper

Question No. 131--

M. Garry Breitkreuz:

With regard to the Canadian Firearms Program: (a) what is the proposed budget allocation for fiscal year 2002-03; (b) what are the line-item cost projections for fiscal year 2002-03; (c) what are the cost projections by department and agency for 2002-03; (d) what is the total cost of the program since its inception in 1995; and (e) what is the projected annual cost for each of the next 10 years?

Mr. Paul Harold Macklin (Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada, Lib.):

(a) The Canadian Firearms Centre’s, CFC, proposed budget allocation for fiscal year 2002-03 is $113.5 million.

(b) The CFC line item cost projections for 2002-03 are as follows:

Vote 1--Operating Expenditures:$97.3 million

Vote 5--Contributions:$10.4 million

Statutory--Employee Benefits:$5.8 million

(c) The cost projections by department and agency that will receive funding through the Canadian Firearms Centre in 2002-03 are as follows:

Department of Justice--CFC:$109.5 million

Solicitor General--RCMP:$3.0 million

Canada Customs and Revenue Agency:$1.0 million

(d) The total cost of the program since inception in 1995 is:

From 1995-96 to 2000-01 the net cost of the program incurred by the Department of Justice--CFC is $484.1 million. This consists of $551.5 million in gross expenditures minus $23.1 million in C-17 expenditures minus $44.3 million in net revenue.

As of March 31, 2002, period 12, the net cost of the program incurred by the Department of Justice--CFC for fiscal year 2001-02 is $88.6 million. This consists of $102.9 million in gross expenditures minus $14.3 million in revenue.

(e) The projected annual costs for the next 10 years are as follows:

i. For 2002-03 the net costs are projected to be $101.2 million (this consists of projected gross expenditures of $113.5 million minus $12.3 million in revenue);

ii. For 2003-04 the net costs are projected to be $59.8 million (this consists of projected gross expenditures of $95.0 million minus $35.2 million in revenue);

iii. For 2004-05 the net costs are projected to be $44.8 million (this consists of projected gross expenditures of $80.0 million minus $35.2 in revenue);

iv. Funding has not yet been finalized for fiscal years 2005-06 through 2011-12, but is expected to continue to decrease.

* * *

NOTE #1: BEWARE OF DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE ESTIMATES

On April 24, 1995, the Justice Minister appeared before the Standing Committee on Justice and tabled his now infamous “Financial Framework for Bill C-68”. This document promised the public and Parliament that the Canadian Firearms Program would run a deficit of only $2.2 million over the first five years. The actual deficit over the first five years was $321,761,005 (Verified in Dept. of Justice documents obtained through the Access to Information Act – DoJ ATIP File: A-2001-0092 dated July 18, 2001).